Fill-in U.S. Sen. Scott Brown wants a full term, faces a challenge from a Ted Kennedy-worthy progressive, and isn't about to let logic or numbers hinder him. For the latest of his campaign spoor, check this excellent analysis at BlueMassGroup (ht to David Kravitz).
Sure, the big out-of-area PAC and superPAC bucks have not kicked in for Brown. They certainly will for him and nemesis Elizabeth Warren, even with their shaky pledge for no-negative ads, or else forced donations to charity. Both sides will have plenty of media buys to befuddle us here.
Amusingly though, Brown started with, what, $11 million in the bank or so to her nought? He seems to have assumed his incumbency, ever-wrinkling good looks, and low-brow humor would ensure he had almost all the resources.
Meanwhile though, Warren clicked with our wishy-washy liberals who dominate the electorate here, not to mention us pinkos and serious progressives. In the past quarter she outraised his contributions by over 2:1 or reported $3.4:$6.9 millions.
Again, both will have plenty under their control as well as from shadowy the other. This is not going to be a Mitt Romney I-bought-the-nomination deal.
What Brown's dishonest and even unmanly whining, per David's depiction, has produced is the evidence of obliviousness on the Senator's part. It brings clearly to mind another political set that doesn't seem to pay attention to its own blathering.
Every year, anti-LGBT ranter Brian Camenker at MassResistance gets the vapors over the ever increasing corporate and non-profit support for Boston's Gay Pride week and parade. Here's a typical post on it.
What he seems to miss here is what is obvious to folks not blinded by his prejudice. Those lists of stores, banks, manufacturers and so forth present and represent America. Those are the mainstream, accepted businesses that employ us and from whom we buy. They are us. The more his tiny group screams about and identifies the sponsors — calling for boycotts of much of American business — the more obvious it is who has won.
Who Loves Ya?
Likewise, Brown's oral, written and advertising comments point out who is cool and favored. He, who won the special election for his office with large contributions from out-of-state conservatives, financial industry machers, special-interest groups and PACs, has tried from Warren's first fund-raising report to paint her as the out-of-Massachusetts funded candidate. Not only does he still receive distant contributions, much of his campaign account is from such allegedly disgraceful sources.
Moreover, she has received considerably more in-commonwealth contributions, both in amount and number, than he. Plainly put, more MA residents like her message enough to support it over his. She is the favorite in money both inside and outside.
His drawing attention to that is like a spoiled kid claiming Mommy treats his sister better.
Here, the unenrolled, a.k.a. independent, voters are up for grabs. About a sixth of voters here are registered Republicans, but less than a third are Democrats, and over half are in the electoral ether, just waiting to be wooed to write checks and smear the ovals.
Brown still has the big club of incumbency. He also benefits from running in a state that seems loath to send a woman to Congress and has never, not once, elected a woman to the U.S. Senate. With those advantages, Warren getting more money from more local potential voters certainly does not ensure her victory.
She's still going to have to convince people who didn't know of her role in D.C. before this, those who are wary of putting a woman in the Senate, those who like Brown's aw-shucks persona, and of course the balance-the-lefties-we-elect types. That's a daunting challenge.
Fortunately for her, Brown is willing to help by repeatedly drawing attention to how much support she's already gotten, even before the Democratic convention in June. Both inside and outside MA, folks like her. He's made that very obvious. She might thank him.
Tags: massmarrier, Massachusetts, Elizabeth Warren, Congress, fund raising, U.S. Senate , Scott Brown , BMG