Saturday, October 20, 2012

Election? Get THE key right here!

The not-so-hidden competition in this huge election is in full fury. The compulsion to be the trend picker and meme definer fills the net, broadcast and print.

Few may remember how soccer moms came into the political vocabulary 17 years ago, Yet the relentless struggle to be the next to nail it all, THE key to the election, continues.

What we've been seeing and hearing are diverse, absurd and contradictory. One blowhard after another picks such as:

  • undecided women
  • Latinos
  • one or more swing states
  • Black women
  • early voters

It goes on and on and on. It has even affected high-brow media. In today's FT for example (may require free reg to view), the construct is How Hispanics could swing it.

This need-to-define-and-forecast has been going on for a long time. Nearly all are wrong nearly every time. Yet, they neither behave themselves nor apologize afterward.

The pronouncement of this, that or the other absolutely crucial demographic ends up being silly. For that to work, the group would have simultaneously to be almost entirely for one candidate and go to the polls at far higher percentages than other groups, say 85%.

So there is the key to the keys — GOTV. These many meme makers were far behind the shimmering crystal ball in 2008. Then, Barack Obama's candidacy and messages awoke the traditionally non-involved first-time and college-age voters. Those seeing the new soccer mom demographic were surprised and came behind claiming they knew about the youth vote all along. They didn't.

This go, there are far too many pivotal voting blocs. Pivots don't work en masse.

Forget a single pivot for this election. The blowhards will keep puffing but to no great discovery.

As noted here frequently, nearly half the voters are likely to go Romney/Ryan. I figure they are the fantasy believers in guns and butter, trickle-down economics, job creators (even though they have hidden in the boardrooms and refused to risk creating jobs since the big bust), and other daydreams. The Obama/Biden (and Warren) camp simply has to get out the vote. If enough rational sorts are enthusiastic enough to wait in line to control the nation's future, the good guys win.

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