In today’s Boston Globe, an analysis comes slightly short of saying the votes are no longer there to provide the necessary 101 out of 200 legislators to put the question to a 2005 constitutional convention and subsequently to voters in 2006. It is a typical Globe hedging assessment. May, might and could figure prominently.
Same-sex marriage opponents in and out of state had hoped for a red-state style backlash. What they got on the first vote last March was 105 for the amendment and 92 against. Since then:
- Two anti-gay marriage representatives lost to pro candidates.
- Three antis have resigned from the House
- Two new senators are likely to favor the amendment
- Three new representatives and one new senator are likely to oppose the amendment.
Until the incumbents and new lawmakers re-declare or declare, a vote outcome is unsure. The Globe figures it is a narrow defeat for the amendment.
If that happens, Massachusetts will continue to permit same-sex marriages. Opponents have an increasingly harder sell in light of the recent experience. As House Speaker Sal DiMasi said, “Gay marriage has been in effect for a long time, and the world hasn’t collapsed.”