He writes in part:
The soonest that it could go to the ballot would be 2008. By then, same-sex couples would have been marrying in Massachusetts for four years. Public opinion polls in the state show a slow but steady increase in the portion of the public who express approval of same-sex marriage, indeed a small majority say so at this point. Perhaps in another two years the majority will have grown. In any event, it seems possible that in a fair campaign, with the governor and a majority of state legislators (and probably a majority of the local press) supporting same-sex marriage, the amendment will be defeated by the voters. Nothing is certain, but this past November Arizona finally ended the unbroken chain of public support for constitutional bans on same-sex marriage, showing that it is possible with an effective campaign to defeat such a measure. (Of course, the Arizona measure was significantly different, in that its broader wording made it possible to fire up straight seniors in opposition to a measure that might deprive them of some of the benefits they derive by living together without marrying...)In contrast, I don't see how progressives and pro-marriage-equality forces could do anything other than working as hard as possible to increase the ConCon support to at least 151 legislators. Snip this weed this year!
At this point, of course, the LGBT political movement in Massachusetts will focus on lobbying to get the amendment defeated at the next Constitutional Convention, but it strikes this observer that the major work should be focused on persuading the public that adding the amendment to the Constitution would be a bad idea, since it seems likely that the public will be called upon to vote, during the next presidential election year.
Tags: massmarrier, Massachusetts, amendment, same sex marriage, ConCon, Arthur S. Leonard