Friday, September 07, 2012

AM MA Poll Surprises


After working 6 AM to 9 PM at a Boston poll, I got a quick net fix on the MA races before catching Biden and Obama's speeches. I didn't know how much would change overnight.

I was a flawed forecaster.

3rd Middle MA Senate. I royally goofed up on this one. Five Dems in the primary clearly filtered to a single choice. We had the candidates on at Left Ahead, I attended their forums and kickoffs. The choice certainly would be between the smart, charming progressive Mara Dolan and the hyper-confident, highly articulate Joe Kearns Goodwin. Also, by a huge fund-raising advantage and celebrity endorsements, the latter looked powerful.

Before the DNC speech time, he was well ahead. When I rose today though, it was former MA Sen. Mike Barrett (38%), Goodwin (32%), Alex Buck (14%), Dolan (12%) and Joe Mulllin (9%). It seemed Lexington went very heavily for Barrett.

2nd District Governor's Council. At my own Jamaica Plain polling place and citywide, my Hyde Park neighbor Brian Clinton was tromping everyone, including Robert Jubinville, who was in his third run for the office. Come the morning, district-wide, it was Jubinville (35%), Bart Timility (28%), Clinton (28%) and Patrick McCabe (9%).

Clinton is young but well plugged in, as Hyde Park District City Councilor Rob Consalvo's chief of staff. Bostonians sure went for him. Despite his relentless campaigning in the spread-out GC district and seemingly ubiquitous yard signs, this very tight race wasn't his. We'd also spoken with Clinton on Left Ahead, in a show that had a lot of listens. He has strong ideas for changes in the role of the GC.

1st Essex MA Senate. In another close one, the upset went to another Left Ahead guest, Kathleen O'Connor Ives. She is pretty young, a Newburyport Councilor, and not nearly as well known as opponents Bill Manzi and Tim Coco. Smart money had Manzi, with his deep and wide community and family connections. It was her at 38% and both the others 31%.

So far after coming up short working for Al Gore, everything she has touched for herself has shone like silver or gold.

Where are elephants? Most other races in Boston and statewide were not close and many not contested. An astounding number have no Republicans running at all. That wispy party claimed that they'd concentrated on the races were they had the best chances. It looked like they pretty much ceded the General Court and other offices to the Dems.

In my precinct and adjacent on in the same polling place, The Republican ballots were only a little beefier than the candidate-less Green-Rainbow one. Nearly all of the few nominees on the GOP ballot were unopposed, but most offices were empty.

I grant that there is a shadow Republican party in our MA politics. There are so many DINOs in the State House that the fiscally and socially conservative legislators are odd Democrats. If only they felt they could win an election with an (R) beside their names on the ballot, they'd surely switch. Likewise, if the MA GOP could flip these, they'd have an impressive list of legislators.

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