Wednesday, November 08, 2006

ConCon: How Heavy Deval?

Bay Windows offers a thorough preview of tomorrow's ConCon. The overview of the agenda is here.

On the face of it, it would seem nearly impossible for the ballot initiative stopping all same-sex marriages going forward would not get the required 25% of the joint legislative session. That's only 50 of 200 legislators. Yet, the emotion accompanying the election of Deval Patrick as governor has some of us speculating.

Even though this ConCon is of the old legislators -- before some nasties retired this year and others got dumped in the primary or general election -- will more in the General Court feel free to vote for marriage equality? Alternately, will at least 50 go for it, knowing that the same amendment would need the same level of support in identical wording next year to get on the ballot?

The BW piece quotes Congressman Mike Capuano as saying Patrick's strong showing will not necessarily affect specific legislators' thinking on this. He and Patrick are both strong marriage-equality advocates. Yet, Capuano said, "It could help in individual districts. It depends how big the win is in individual districts."

He figures, each legislator will analyze the local returns to see how to jump.

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