In the Bare Majority

Pick a poll, any poll. This is the season.

While we are two years away from yet another effort to rescind same-sex marriage here, the polling on the maybe vote continues. The latest was from the Lawrence Eagle-Tribune.

This one is good, but not great, news for pro-SSM folk. The Bay State Poll, billed as the first statewide one on the proposed amendment to ban SSM, found 53% opposed (in favor of keeping SSM) and 37% who would vote for the amendment.

The poll was by the Merrimack College Center for Public Opinion Research. Conducted between October 16th and 23rd, it has a margin of error of 4.5%.

The overview includes:

Residents who favor the amendment are most likely to be: male, older
than 55, Catholic, Republican, a state resident for fewer than five
years, a member of a family earning less than $35,000 annually, and
someone who earned a high school diploma but did not attend college.
By contrast, those who oppose the amendment are more likely to be:
female, between 18 and 34 years old, atheist or agnostic, Democrat, a
state resident for longer than 15 years, a member of a family with an
income between $70,000 and $100,000, and someone with an advanced
degree.

From this perspective, that is not a good enough margin. On the other hand, the longer people see that SSM harms no one and helps many, the less likely they are to favor stripping rights from any group.

The anti folk have been reduced to saying that "Just wait. Something bad will happen." It is not credible.